The first all-inclusive introduction to modern statistical research methods in the natural resource sciences The use of Bayesian statistical analysis has become increasingly important to natural resource scientists as a practical tool for solving various research problems. However, many important contemporary methods of applied statistics, such as generalized linear modeling, mixed-effects modeling, and Bayesian statistical analysis and inference, remain relatively unknown among researchers and practitioners in this field. Through its inclusive, hands-on treatment of real-world examples, Contemporary Bayesian and Frequentist Statistical Research Methods for Natural Resource Scientists successfully introduces the key concepts of statistical analysis and inference with an accessible, easy-to-follow approach. The book provides case studies illustrating common problems that exist in the natural resource sciences and presents the statistical knowledge and tools needed for a modern treatment of these issues. Subsequent chapter coverage features: An introduction to the fundamental concepts of Bayesian statistical analysis, including its historical background, conjugate solutions, Bayesian hypothesis testing and decision-making, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo solutions The relevant advantages of using Bayesian statistical analysis, rather than the traditional frequentist approach, to address research problems Two alternative strategies—the a posteriori model selection strategy and the a priori parsimonious model selection strategy using AIC and DIC—to model selection and inference The ideas of generalized linear modeling (GLM), focusing on the most popular GLM of logistic regression An introduction to mixed-effects modeling in S-Plus® and R for analyzing natural resource data sets with varying error structures and dependencies Each statistical concept is accompanied by an illustration of its frequentist application in S-Plus® or R as well as its Bayesian application in WinBUGS. Brief introductions to these software packages are also provided to help the reader fully understand the concepts of the statistical methods that are presented throughout the book. Assuming only a minimal background in introductory statistics, Contemporary Bayesian and Frequentist Statistical Research Methods for Natural Resource Scientists is an ideal text for natural resource students studying statistical research methods at the upper-undergraduate or graduate level and also serves as a valuable problem-solving guide for natural resource scientists across a broad range of disciplines, including biology, wildlife management, forestry management, fisheries management, and the environmental sciences.
Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals. This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management. Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticians Covers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and more Deemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principles Explains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models
The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multi fold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.
The essential textbook on agent-based modeling—now fully updated and expanded Agent-Based and Individual-Based Modeling has become the standard textbook on the subject for classroom use and self-instruction. Drawing on the latest version of NetLogo and fully updated with new examples, exercises, and an enhanced text for easier comprehension, this is the essential resource for anyone seeking to understand how the dynamics of biological, social, and other complex systems arise from the characteristics of the agents that make up these systems. Steven Railsback and Volker Grimm lead students stepwise through the processes of designing, programming, documenting, and doing scientific research with agent-based models, focusing on the adaptive behaviors that make these models necessary. They cover the fundamentals of modeling and model analysis, introduce key modeling concepts, and demonstrate how to implement them using NetLogo. They also address pattern-oriented modeling, an invaluable strategy for modeling real-world problems and developing theory. This accessible and authoritative book focuses on modeling as a tool for understanding real complex systems. It explains how to pose a specific question, use observations from actual systems to design models, write and test software, and more. A hands-on introduction that guides students from conceptual design to computer implementation to analysis Filled with new examples and exercises and compatible with the latest version of NetLogo Ideal for students and researchers across the natural and social sciences Written by two leading practitioners Supported by extensive instructional materials at www.railsback-grimm-abm-book.com