Since 1975, The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction has introduced legions of statistics students and researchers to the theory and practice of time series analysis. With each successive edition, bestselling author Chris Chatfield has honed and refined his presentation, updated the material to reflect advances in the field, and presented interesting new data sets. The sixth edition is no exception. It provides an accessible, comprehensive introduction to the theory and practice of time series analysis. The treatment covers a wide range of topics, including ARIMA probability models, forecasting methods, spectral analysis, linear systems, state-space models, and the Kalman filter. It also addresses nonlinear, multivariate, and long-memory models. The author has carefully updated each chapter, added new discussions, incorporated new datasets, and made those datasets available for download from www.crcpress.com. A free online appendix on time series analysis using R can be accessed at http://people.bath.ac.uk/mascc/TSA.usingR.doc. Highlights of the Sixth Edition: A new section on handling real data New discussion on prediction intervals A completely revised and restructured chapter on more advanced topics, with new material on the aggregation of time series, analyzing time series in finance, and discrete-valued time series A new chapter of examples and practical advice Thorough updates and revisions throughout the text that reflect recent developments and dramatic changes in computing practices over the last few years The analysis of time series can be a difficult topic, but as this book has demonstrated for two-and-a-half decades, it does not have to be daunting. The accessibility, polished presentation, and broad coverage of The Analysis of Time Series make it simply the best introduction to the subject available.
Highly praised for its broad, practical coverage, the second edition of this popular text incorporated the major statistical models and issues relevant to epidemiological studies. Epidemiology: Study Design and Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to focus on the quantitative aspects of epidemiological research. Updated and expanded, this edition shows students how statistical principles and techniques can help solve epidemiological problems. New to the Third Edition New chapter on risk scores and clinical decision rules New chapter on computer-intensive methods, including the bootstrap, permutation tests, and missing value imputation New sections on binomial regression models, competing risk, information criteria, propensity scoring, and splines Many more exercises and examples using both Stata and SAS More than 60 new figures After introducing study design and reviewing all the standard methods, this self-contained book takes students through analytical methods for both general and specific epidemiological study designs, including cohort, case-control, and intervention studies. In addition to classical methods, it now covers modern methods that exploit the enormous power of contemporary computers. The book also addresses the problem of determining the appropriate size for a study, discusses statistical modeling in epidemiology, covers methods for comparing and summarizing the evidence from several studies, and explains how to use statistical models in risk forecasting and assessing new biomarkers. The author illustrates the techniques with numerous real-world examples and interprets results in a practical way. He also includes an extensive list of references for further reading along with exercises to reinforce understanding. Web Resource A wealth of supporting material can be downloaded from the book’s CRC Press web page, including: Real-life data sets used in the text SAS and Stata programs used for examples in the text SAS and Stata programs for special techniques covered Sample size spreadsheet
An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both rigorous and friendly, the book contains: Introductory chapters examining each new concept or assumption Just-in-time mathematics – the presentation of ideas just before they are applied Summary and exercises at the end of each chapter Discussion of maximization of expected utility The basics of Markov Chain Monte Carlo computing techniques Problems involving more than one decision-maker Written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples, Principles of Uncertainty introduces the most compelling parts of mathematics, computing, and philosophy as they bear on statistics. Although many books present the computation of a variety of statistics and algorithms while barely skimming the philosophical ramifications of subjective probability, this book takes a different tack. By addressing how to think about uncertainty, this book gives readers the intuition and understanding required to choose a particular method for a particular purpose.
Author: Abdelmonem Afifi,Susanne May,Virginia A. Clark
Publisher: CRC Press
This new version of the bestselling Computer-Aided Multivariate Analysis has been appropriately renamed to better characterize the nature of the book. Taking into account novel multivariate analyses as well as new options for many standard methods, Practical Multivariate Analysis, Fifth Edition shows readers how to perform multivariate statistical analyses and understand the results. For each of the techniques presented in this edition, the authors use the most recent software versions available and discuss the most modern ways of performing the analysis. New to the Fifth Edition Chapter on regression of correlated outcomes resulting from clustered or longitudinal samples Reorganization of the chapter on data analysis preparation to reflect current software packages Use of R statistical software Updated and reorganized references and summary tables Additional end-of-chapter problems and data sets The first part of the book provides examples of studies requiring multivariate analysis techniques; discusses characterizing data for analysis, computer programs, data entry, data management, data clean-up, missing values, and transformations; and presents a rough guide to assist in choosing the appropriate multivariate analysis. The second part examines outliers and diagnostics in simple linear regression and looks at how multiple linear regression is employed in practice and as a foundation for understanding a variety of concepts. The final part deals with the core of multivariate analysis, covering canonical correlation, discriminant, logistic regression, survival, principal components, factor, cluster, and log-linear analyses. While the text focuses on the use of R, S-PLUS, SAS, SPSS, Stata, and STATISTICA, other software packages can also be used since the output of most standard statistical programs is explained. Data sets and code are available for download from the book’s web page and CRC Press Online.
Author: Abdelmonem Afifi,Susanne May,Virginia A. Clark
Publisher: CRC Press
Computer-Aided Multivariate Analysis, Fourth Edition enables researchers and students with limited mathematical backgrounds to understand the concepts underlying multivariate statistical analysis, perform analysis using statistical packages, and understand the output. New topics include Loess and Poisson regression, nominal and ordinal logistic regression, interpretation of interactions in logistic and survival analysis, and imputation for missing values. This book includes new exercises and references, and updated options in the latest versions of the statistical packages. All data sets and codebooks are available for download. The authors explain the assumptions made in performing each analysis and test, how to determine if your data meets those assumptions, and what to do if they do not. What to Watch out for sections in each chapter warn of common difficulties. By reading this text, you will know what method to use with your data set, how to get the results, and how to interpret them and explain them to others. New in the Fourth Edition: Expanded explanation of checking for goodness of fit in logistic regression and survival analysis Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival curves, formal tests for comparing survival between groups, interactions and the use of time-dependent covariates in survival analysis Expanded discussion of how to handle missing values Latest features of the S-PLUS package in addition to SAS, SPSS, STATA, and STATISTICA for multivariate analysis Data sets for the problems are available at the CRC web site: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781584883081 Commands and output for examples used in the text for each statistical package are available at the UCLA web site: http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/examples/cama4/
Vom Absolutrang bis zum Zweifach-Varianzanalysemodell – alles, was Sie über weiterführende Statistik wissen sollten Es gibt Qualen, große Qualen und Statistik, so sehen es viele Studenten. Mit diesem Buch lernen Sie weiterführende Statistik so leicht wie möglich. Deborah Rumsey zeigt Ihnen, wie Sie Varianzanalysen und Chi-Quadrat-Tests berechnen, wie Sie mit Regressionen arbeiten, ein Modell erstellen, Korrelationen bilden, nichtparametrische Prozeduren durchführen und vieles mehr. Aber auch die Grundlagen der Statistik bleiben nicht außen vor und deshalb erklärt Ihnen die Autorin, was Sie zu Mittelwerten, Vertrauensintervallen und Co wissen sollten. So lernen Sie die Methoden, die Sie brauchen, und erhalten das Handwerkszeug, um erfolgreich Ihre Statistikprüfungen zu bestehen. Sie erfahren: • Wie Sie mit multiplen Regressionen umgehen • Was es mit dem Vorzeichentest und dem Vorzeichenrangtest auf sich hat • Wie Sie sich innerhalb der statistischen Techniken zurechtfinden • Was das richtige Regressionsmodell für Ihre Analyse ist • Wie Regression und ANOVA zusammenhängen
Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter written by Stephen Portnoy, censored regression quantiles - a new nonparametric regression methodology (2003) - is developed to identify important forms of population heterogeneity and to detect departures from traditional Cox models. By generalizing the Kaplan-Meier estimator to regression models for conditional quantiles, this methods provides a valuable complement to traditional Cox proportional hazards approaches.
With a focus on analyzing and modeling linear dynamic systems using statistical methods, Time Series Analysis formulates various linear models, discusses their theoretical characteristics, and explores the connections among stochastic dynamic models. Emphasizing the time domain description, the author presents theorems to highlight the most important results, proofs to clarify some results, and problems to illustrate the use of the results for modeling real-life phenomena. The book first provides the formulas and methods needed to adapt a second-order approach for characterizing random variables as well as introduces regression methods and models, including the general linear model. It subsequently covers linear dynamic deterministic systems, stochastic processes, time domain methods where the autocorrelation function is key to identification, spectral analysis, transfer-function models, and the multivariate linear process. The text also describes state space models and recursive and adaptivemethods. The final chapter examines a host of practical problems, including the predictions of wind power production and the consumption of medicine, a scheduling system for oil delivery, and the adaptive modeling of interest rates. Concentrating on the linear aspect of this subject, Time Series Analysis provides an accessible yet thorough introduction to the methods for modeling linear stochastic systems. It will help you understand the relationship between linear dynamic systems and linear stochastic processes.
Based on a popular course taught by the late Gian-Carlo Rota of MIT, with many new topics covered as well, Introduction to Probability with R presents R programs and animations to provide an intuitive yet rigorous understanding of how to model natural phenomena from a probabilistic point of view. Although the R programs are small in length, they are just as sophisticated and powerful as longer programs in other languages. This brevity makes it easy for students to become proficient in R. This calculus-based introduction organizes the material around key themes. One of the most important themes centers on viewing probability as a way to look at the world, helping students think and reason probabilistically. The text also shows how to combine and link stochastic processes to form more complex processes that are better models of natural phenomena. In addition, it presents a unified treatment of transforms, such as Laplace, Fourier, and z; the foundations of fundamental stochastic processes using entropy and information; and an introduction to Markov chains from various viewpoints. Each chapter includes a short biographical note about a contributor to probability theory, exercises, and selected answers. The book has an accompanying website with more information.
A Primer on Linear Models presents a unified, thorough, and rigorous development of the theory behind the statistical methodology of regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA). It seamlessly incorporates these concepts using non-full-rank design matrices and emphasizes the exact, finite sample theory supporting common statistical methods. With coverage steadily progressing in complexity, the text first provides examples of the general linear model, including multiple regression models, one-way ANOVA, mixed-effects models, and time series models. It then introduces the basic algebra and geometry of the linear least squares problem, before delving into estimability and the Gauss–Markov model. After presenting the statistical tools of hypothesis tests and confidence intervals, the author analyzes mixed models, such as two-way mixed ANOVA, and the multivariate linear model. The appendices review linear algebra fundamentals and results as well as Lagrange multipliers. This book enables complete comprehension of the material by taking a general, unifying approach to the theory, fundamentals, and exact results of linear models.
Designed for researchers and students, Nonlinear Times Series: Theory, Methods and Applications with R Examples familiarizes readers with the principles behind nonlinear time series models—without overwhelming them with difficult mathematical developments. By focusing on basic principles and theory, the authors give readers the background required to craft their own stochastic models, numerical methods, and software. They will also be able to assess the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches, and thus be able to choose the right methods for their purposes. The first part can be seen as a crash course on "classical" time series, with a special emphasis on linear state space models and detailed coverage of random coefficient autoregressions, both ARCH and GARCH models. The second part introduces Markov chains, discussing stability, the existence of a stationary distribution, ergodicity, limit theorems, and statistical inference. The book concludes with a self-contained account on nonlinear state space and sequential Monte Carlo methods. An elementary introduction to nonlinear state space modeling and sequential Monte Carlo, this section touches on current topics, from the theory of statistical inference to advanced computational methods. The book can be used as a support to an advanced course on these methods, or an introduction to this field before studying more specialized texts. Several chapters highlight recent developments such as explicit rate of convergence of Markov chains and sequential Monte Carlo techniques. And while the chapters are organized in a logical progression, the three parts can be studied independently. Statistics is not a spectator sport, so the book contains more than 200 exercises to challenge readers. These problems strengthen intellectual muscles strained by the introduction of new theory and go on to extend the theory in significant ways. The book helps readers hone their skills in nonlinear time series analysis and their applications.
Understanding spatial statistics requires tools from applied and mathematical statistics, linear model theory, regression, time series, and stochastic processes. It also requires a mindset that focuses on the unique characteristics of spatial data and the development of specialized analytical tools designed explicitly for spatial data analysis. Statistical Methods for Spatial Data Analysis answers the demand for a text that incorporates all of these factors by presenting a balanced exposition that explores both the theoretical foundations of the field of spatial statistics as well as practical methods for the analysis of spatial data. This book is a comprehensive and illustrative treatment of basic statistical theory and methods for spatial data analysis, employing a model-based and frequentist approach that emphasizes the spatial domain. It introduces essential tools and approaches including: measures of autocorrelation and their role in data analysis; the background and theoretical framework supporting random fields; the analysis of mapped spatial point patterns; estimation and modeling of the covariance function and semivariogram; a comprehensive treatment of spatial analysis in the spectral domain; and spatial prediction and kriging. The volume also delivers a thorough analysis of spatial regression, providing a detailed development of linear models with uncorrelated errors, linear models with spatially-correlated errors and generalized linear mixed models for spatial data. It succinctly discusses Bayesian hierarchical models and concludes with reviews on simulating random fields, non-stationary covariance, and spatio-temporal processes. Additional material on the CRC Press website supplements the content of this book. The site provides data sets used as examples in the text, software code that can be used to implement many of the principal methods described and illustrated, and updates to the text itself.