*Persistence and Extinction*

**Author**: Linda J. S. Allen

**Publisher:** Springer

**ISBN:** 331921554X

**Category:** Mathematics

**Page:** 47

**View:** 9691

This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Texas Tech University, USA.

The purpose of this book is to provide a comprehensive discussion of the available results for discrete time branching processes with random control functions. The independence of individuals’ reproduction is a fundamental assumption in the classical branching processes. Alternatively, the controlled branching processes (CBPs) allow the number of reproductive individuals in one generation to decrease or increase depending on the size of the previous generation. Generating a wide range of behaviors, the CBPs have been successfully used as modeling tools in diverse areas of applications.

The goal of this book is to search for a balance between simple and analyzable models and unsolvable models which are capable of addressing important questions on population biology. Part I focusses on single species simple models including those which have been used to predict the growth of human and animal population in the past. Single population models are, in some sense, the building blocks of more realistic models -- the subject of Part II. Their role is fundamental to the study of ecological and demographic processes including the role of population structure and spatial heterogeneity -- the subject of Part III. This book, which will include both examples and exercises, is of use to practitioners, graduate students, and scientists working in the field.

Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downloaded at the web site of the Centre for Disease Modeling (www.cdm.yorku.ca).

This volume develops results on continuous time branching processes and applies them to study rate of tumor growth, extending classic work on the Luria-Delbruck distribution. As a consequence, the author calculate the probability that mutations that confer resistance to treatment are present at detection and quantify the extent of tumor heterogeneity. As applications, the author evaluate ovarian cancer screening strategies and give rigorous proofs for results of Heano and Michor concerning tumor metastasis. These notes should be accessible to students who are familiar with Poisson processes and continuous time Markov chains. Richard Durrett is a mathematics professor at Duke University, USA. He is the author of 8 books, over 200 journal articles, and has supervised more than 40 Ph.D students. Most of his current research concerns the applications of probability to biology: ecology, genetics and most recently cancer.

KEY BENEFIT: This reference introduces a variety of mathematical models for biological systems, and presents the mathematical theory and techniques useful in analyzing those models. Material is organized according to the mathematical theory rather than the biological application. Contains applications of mathematical theory to biological examples in each chapter. Focuses on deterministic mathematical models with an emphasis on predicting the qualitative solution behavior over time. Discusses classical mathematical models from population , including the Leslie matrix model, the Nicholson-Bailey model, and the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model. Also discusses more recent models, such as a model for the Human Immunodeficiency Virus - HIV and a model for flour beetles. KEY MARKET: Readers seeking a solid background in the mathematics behind modeling in biology and exposure to a wide variety of mathematical models in biology.

In this contribution, several probabilistic tools to study population dynamics are developed. The focus is on scaling limits of qualitatively different stochastic individual based models and the long time behavior of some classes of limiting processes. Structured population dynamics are modeled by measure-valued processes describing the individual behaviors and taking into account the demographic and mutational parameters, and possible interactions between individuals. Many quantitative parameters appear in these models and several relevant normalizations are considered, leading to infinite-dimensional deterministic or stochastic large-population approximations. Biologically relevant questions are considered, such as extinction criteria, the effect of large birth events, the impact of environmental catastrophes, the mutation-selection trade-off, recovery criteria in parasite infections, genealogical properties of a sample of individuals. These notes originated from a lecture series on Structured Population Dynamics at Ecole polytechnique (France). Vincent Bansaye and Sylvie Méléard are Professors at Ecole Polytechnique (France). They are a specialists of branching processes and random particle systems in biology. Most of their research concerns the applications of probability to biodiversity, ecology and evolution.

Modeling Biomolecular Networks in Cells shows how the interaction between the molecular components of basic living organisms can be modelled mathematically and the models used to create artificial biological entities within cells. Such forward engineering is a difficult task but the nonlinear dynamical methods espoused in this book simplify the biology so that it can be successfully understood and the synthesis of simple biological oscillators and rhythm-generators made feasible. Such simple units can then be co-ordinated using intercellular signal biomolecules. The formation of such man-made multicellular networks with a view to the production of biosensors, logic gates, new forms of integrated circuitry based on "gene-chips" and even biological computers is an important step in the design of faster and more flexible "electronics". The book also provides theoretical frameworks and tools with which to analyze the nonlinear dynamical phenomena which arise from the connection of building units in a biomolecular network.

This expository book presents the mathematical description of evolutionary models of populations subject to interactions (e.g. competition) within the population. The author includes both models of finite populations, and limiting models as the size of the population tends to infinity. The size of the population is described as a random function of time and of the initial population (the ancestors at time 0). The genealogical tree of such a population is given. Most models imply that the population is bound to go extinct in finite time. It is explained when the interaction is strong enough so that the extinction time remains finite, when the ancestral population at time 0 goes to infinity. The material could be used for teaching stochastic processes, together with their applications. Étienne Pardoux is Professor at Aix-Marseille University, working in the field of Stochastic Analysis, stochastic partial differential equations, and probabilistic models in evolutionary biology and population genetics. He obtained his PhD in 1975 at University of Paris-Sud.

This textbook provides an exciting new addition to the area of network science featuring a stronger and more methodical link of models to their mathematical origin and explains how these relate to each other with special focus on epidemic spread on networks. The content of the book is at the interface of graph theory, stochastic processes and dynamical systems. The authors set out to make a significant contribution to closing the gap between model development and the supporting mathematics. This is done by: Summarising and presenting the state-of-the-art in modeling epidemics on networks with results and readily usable models signposted throughout the book; Presenting different mathematical approaches to formulate exact and solvable models; Identifying the concrete links between approximate models and their rigorous mathematical representation; Presenting a model hierarchy and clearly highlighting the links between model assumptions and model complexity; Providing a reference source for advanced undergraduate students, as well as doctoral students, postdoctoral researchers and academic experts who are engaged in modeling stochastic processes on networks; Providing software that can solve differential equation models or directly simulate epidemics on networks. Replete with numerous diagrams, examples, instructive exercises, and online access to simulation algorithms and readily usable code, this book will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers from different backgrounds and academic levels. Appropriate for students with or without a strong background in mathematics, this textbook can form the basis of an advanced undergraduate or graduate course in both mathematics and other departments alike.

The objective of this manual is to provide guidance to risk assessors on the use of quantitative toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic data to address interspecies and interindividual differences in dose/concentration-response assessment. Section 1 focuses on the relevance of this guidance in the context of the broader risk assessment paradigm and other initiatives of the International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS) project on the Harmonization of Approaches to the Assessment of Risk from Exposure to Chemicals. Technical background material is presented in section 2, followed by generic guidance for the development of chemical-specific adjustment factors in section 3 and accompanying summary figures. Illustrative case-studies are included in an Appendix, and a glossary of terms is also provided.

This text presents mathematical biology as a field with a unity of its own, rather than only the intrusion of one science into another. The book focuses on problems of contemporary interest, such as cancer, genetics, and the rapidly growing field of genomics.

This book explains a procedure for constructing realistic stochastic differential equation models for randomly varying systems in biology, chemistry, physics, engineering, and finance. Introductory chapters present the fundamental concepts of random variables, stochastic processes, stochastic integration, and stochastic differential equations. These concepts are explained in a Hilbert space setting which unifies and simplifies the presentation.

Mathematical demography is the centerpiece of quantitative social science. The founding works of this field from Roman times to the late Twentieth Century are collected here, in a new edition of a classic work by David R. Smith and Nathan Keyfitz. Commentaries by Smith and Keyfitz have been brought up to date and extended by Kenneth Wachter and Hervé Le Bras, giving a synoptic picture of the leading achievements in formal population studies. Like the original collection, this new edition constitutes an indispensable source for students and scientists alike, and illustrates the deep roots and continuing vitality of mathematical demography.

This volume is an attempt to provide a graduate level introduction to various aspects of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields, with special emphasis placed on fundamental classes of models and algorithms as well as on their applications, e.g. in materials science, biology and genetics. This book has a strong focus on simulations and includes extensive codes in Matlab and R which are widely used in the mathematical community. It can be seen as a continuation of the recent volume 2068 of Lecture Notes in Mathematics, where other issues of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields were considered with a focus on asymptotic methods.

This book covers the mathematical idea of branching processes, and tailors it for a biological audience.

The problems of understanding and controlling disease present a range of mathematical challenges, from broad theoretical issues to specific practical ones, making epidemiology one of the most vibrant branches of applied ecology. Progress in this field requires interdisciplinary collaboration; leading researchers with a wide range of mathematical expertise and close involvement in applied fields across the social, medical and biological sciences came together for a NATO Advanced Research Workshop marking the opening of a six-month programme on Epidemic Models at the Newton Institute in Cambridge in 1993. This volume is a result of that collaboration and surveys the state of epidemic modelling at the time in relation to basic aims such as understanding, prediction, and evaluation and implementation of control strategies.

When a plant or animal becomes rare, individuals may suffer because of a lack of others of the same species. They may find it difficult to reproduce or raise young, escape from predators in a crowd or keep warm in winter. This means that each individual in the population is less successful, and as a consequence the population may decline still further, with the possibility of extinction. This phenomenon is called an Allee effect, after the ecologist who firstsuggested the idea. As many species become rare as a result of human activities, Allee effects become more and more relevant to ecologists and conservation biologists who study thescience of rarity, and also to conservationists and managers who try and protect endangered populations. This book provides a scholarly yet accessible overview of the Allee effect, the mechanisms which drive it and its consequences for population dynamics, evolution and conservation.

This book focuses on counting processes and continuous-time Markov chains motivated by examples and applications drawn from chemical networks in systems biology. The book should serve well as a supplement for courses in probability and stochastic processes. While the material is presented in a manner most suitable for students who have studied stochastic processes up to and including martingales in continuous time, much of the necessary background material is summarized in the Appendix. Students and Researchers with a solid understanding of calculus, differential equations and elementary probability and who are well-motivated by the applications will find this book of interest. David F. Anderson is Associate Professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Wisconsin and Thomas G. Kurtz is Emeritus Professor in the Departments of Mathematics and Statistics at that university. Their research is focused on probability and stochastic processes with applications in biology and other areas of science and technology. These notes are based in part on lectures given by Professor Anderson at the University of Wisconsin – Madison and by Professor Kurtz at Goethe University Frankfurt.

Introduction to Mathematical Oncology presents biologically well-motivated and mathematically tractable models that facilitate both a deep understanding of cancer biology and better cancer treatment designs. It covers the medical and biological background of the diseases, modeling issues, and existing methods and their limitations. The authors introduce mathematical and programming tools, along with analytical and numerical studies of the models. They also develop new mathematical tools and look to future improvements on dynamical models. After introducing the general theory of medicine and exploring how mathematics can be essential in its understanding, the text describes well-known, practical, and insightful mathematical models of avascular tumor growth and mathematically tractable treatment models based on ordinary differential equations. It continues the topic of avascular tumor growth in the context of partial differential equation models by incorporating the spatial structure and physiological structure, such as cell size. The book then focuses on the recent active multi-scale modeling efforts on prostate cancer growth and treatment dynamics. It also examines more mechanistically formulated models, including cell quota-based population growth models, with applications to real tumors and validation using clinical data. The remainder of the text presents abundant additional historical, biological, and medical background materials for advanced and specific treatment modeling efforts. Extensively classroom-tested in undergraduate and graduate courses, this self-contained book allows instructors to emphasize specific topics relevant to clinical cancer biology and treatment. It can be used in a variety of ways, including a single-semester undergraduate course, a more ambitious graduate course, or a full-year sequence on mathematical oncology.