The use of methods of time series analysis in the study of multivariate time series has become of increased interest in recent years. Although the methods are rather well developed and understood for univarjate time series analysis, the situation is not so complete for the multivariate case. This book is designed to introduce the basic concepts and methods that are useful in the analysis and modeling of multivariate time series, with illustrations of these basic ideas. The development includes both traditional topics such as autocovariance and auto correlation matrices of stationary processes, properties of vector ARMA models, forecasting ARMA processes, least squares and maximum likelihood estimation techniques for vector AR and ARMA models, and model checking diagnostics for residuals, as well as topics of more recent interest for vector ARMA models such as reduced rank structure, structural indices, scalar component models, canonical correlation analyses for vector time series, multivariate unit-root models and cointegration structure, and state-space models and Kalman filtering techniques and applications. This book concentrates on the time-domain analysis of multivariate time series, and the important subject of spectral analysis is not considered here. For that topic, the reader is referred to the excellent books by Jenkins and Watts (1968), Hannan (1970), Priestley (1981), and others.
Ob Kursentwicklungen von Aktien oder Anleihen, die Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsproduktes, die Inflationsrate oder die Arbeitslosenquote, die Wirtschaftsseiten der Zeitungen sind voll von Zeitreihen. Wie man solche Zeitreihen analysiert, Muster und Regelmäßigkeiten erkennt und Prognosen für die zukünftige Entwicklung erstellt, zeigt Ihnen dieses Buch. Der Text der 3. Auflage wurde gründlich überarbeitet und ein Kapitel über die Analyse von Zeitreihen im Frequenzbereich hinzugefügt.
This book provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art of nonlinear time series analysis, richly illustrated with examples, pseudocode algorithms and real-world applications. Avoiding a “theorem-proof” format, it shows concrete applications on a variety of empirical time series. The book can be used in graduate courses in nonlinear time series and at the same time also includes interesting material for more advanced readers. Though it is largely self-contained, readers require an understanding of basic linear time series concepts, Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The book covers time-domain and frequency-domain methods for the analysis of both univariate and multivariate (vector) time series. It makes a clear distinction between parametric models on the one hand, and semi- and nonparametric models/methods on the other. This offers the reader the option of concentrating exclusively on one of these nonlinear time series analysis methods. To make the book as user friendly as possible, major supporting concepts and specialized tables are appended at the end of every chapter. In addition, each chapter concludes with a set of key terms and concepts, as well as a summary of the main findings. Lastly, the book offers numerous theoretical and empirical exercises, with answers provided by the author in an extensive solutions manual.
Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a technique of time series analysis and forecasting combining elements of classical time series analysis, multivariate statistics, multivariate geometry, dynamical systems and signal processing. SSA seeks to decompose the original series into a sum of a small number of interpretable components such as trend, oscillatory components and noise. It is based on the singular value decomposition of a specific matrix constructed upon the time series. Neither a parametric model nor stationarity are assumed for the time series. This makes SSA a model-free method and hence enables SSA to have a very wide range of applicability. The present book is devoted to the methodology of SSA and shows how to use SSA both safely and with maximum effect. Potential readers of the book include: professional statisticians and econometricians, specialists in any discipline in which problems of time series analysis and forecasting occur, specialists in signal processing and those needed to extract signals from noisy data, and students taking courses on applied time series analysis.
This is the new and totally revised edition of Lütkepohl’s classic 1991 work. It provides a detailed introduction to the main steps of analyzing multiple time series, model specification, estimation, model checking, and for using the models for economic analysis and forecasting. The book now includes new chapters on cointegration analysis, structural vector autoregressions, cointegrated VARMA processes and multivariate ARCH models. The book bridges the gap to the difficult technical literature on the topic. It is accessible to graduate students in business and economics. In addition, multiple time series courses in other fields such as statistics and engineering may be based on it.
The fourth edition of this popular graduate textbook, like its predecessors, presents a balanced and comprehensive treatment of both time and frequency domain methods with accompanying theory. Numerous examples using nontrivial data illustrate solutions to problems such as discovering natural and anthropogenic climate change, evaluating pain perception experiments using functional magnetic resonance imaging, and monitoring a nuclear test ban treaty. The book is designed as a textbook for graduate level students in the physical, biological, and social sciences and as a graduate level text in statistics. Some parts may also serve as an undergraduate introductory course. Theory and methodology are separated to allow presentations on different levels. In addition to coverage of classical methods of time series regression, ARIMA models, spectral analysis and state-space models, the text includes modern developments including categorical time series analysis, multivariate spectral methods, long memory series, nonlinear models, resampling techniques, GARCH models, ARMAX models, stochastic volatility, wavelets, and Markov chain Monte Carlo integration methods. This edition includes R code for each numerical example in addition to Appendix R, which provides a reference for the data sets and R scripts used in the text in addition to a tutorial on basic R commands and R time series. An additional file is available on the book’s website for download, making all the data sets and scripts easy to load into R.
This book provides a broad overview of the basic theory and methods of applied multivariate analysis. The presentation integrates both theory and practice including both the analysis of formal linear multivariate models and exploratory data analysis techniques. Each chapter contains the development of basic theoretical results with numerous applications illustrated using examples from the social and behavioral sciences, and other disciplines. All examples are analyzed using SAS for Windows Version 8.0.
Dieses Buch präsentiert die wichtigsten Modelle und Verfahren der Zeitreihenanalyse. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf dem Zeitbereich; speziell werden explorative Methoden, ARMA-Modelle mit ihren Erweiterungen, Prognosemethoden und Zeitreihenregressionen behandelt. Die Neuauflage wurde akualisiert und unter anderem um ein Kapitel der Long-Memory-Prozesse erweitert.
This book covers recent developments in correlated data analysis. It utilizes the class of dispersion models as marginal components in the formulation of joint models for correlated data. This enables the book to cover a broader range of data types than the traditional generalized linear models. The reader is provided with a systematic treatment for the topic of estimating functions, and both generalized estimating equations (GEE) and quadratic inference functions (QIF) are studied as special cases. In addition to the discussions on marginal models and mixed-effects models, this book covers new topics on joint regression analysis based on Gaussian copulas.
Proceedings of the 2015 International Symposium in Statistics
Author: Brajendra C. Sutradhar
This proceedings volume contains eight selected papers that were presented in the International Symposium in Statistics (ISS) 2015 On Advances in Parametric and Semi-parametric Analysis of Multivariate, Time Series, Spatial-temporal, and Familial-longitudinal Data, held in St. John’s, Canada from July 6 to 8, 2015. The main objective of the ISS-2015 was the discussion on advances and challenges in parametric and semi-parametric analysis for correlated data in both continuous and discrete setups. Thus, as a reflection of the theme of the symposium, the eight papers of this proceedings volume are presented in four parts. Part I is comprised of papers examining Elliptical t Distribution Theory. In Part II, the papers cover spatial and temporal data analysis. Part III is focused on longitudinal multinomial models in parametric and semi-parametric setups. Finally Part IV concludes with a paper on the inferences for longitudinal data subject to a challenge of important covariates selection from a set of large number of covariates available for the individuals in the study.
This book will interest and assist people who are dealing with the problems of predictions of time series in higher education and research. It will greatly assist people who apply time series theory to practical problems in their work and also serve as a textbook for postgraduate students in statistics economics and related subjects.
Das Buch ist eine Einführung in die Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung und mathematische Statistik auf mittlerem mathematischen Niveau. Die Pädagogik der Darstellung unterscheidet sich in wesentlichen Teilen – Einführung der Modelle für unabhängige und abhängige Experimente, Darstellung des Suffizienzbegriffes, Ausführung des Zusammenhanges zwischen Testtheorie und Theorie der Bereichschätzung, allgemeine Diskussion der Modellentwicklung – erheblich von der anderer vergleichbarer Lehrbücher. Die Darstellung ist, soweit auf diesem Niveau möglich, mathematisch exakt, verzichtet aber bewußt und ebenfalls im Gegensatz zu vergleichbaren Texten auf die Erörterung von Meßbarkeitsfragen. Der Leser wird dadurch erheblich entlastet, ohne daß wesentliche Substanz verlorengeht. Das Buch will allen, die an der Anwendung der Statistik auf solider Grundlage interessiert sind, eine Einführung bieten, und richtet sich an Studierende und Dozenten aller Studienrichtungen, für die mathematische Statistik ein Werkzeug ist.
"The book is an essential text/reference on the latest concepts and methods for studying quantitative modeling of nonlinear dynamical system behavior. Postgraduates, professionals, and researchers in science, engineering, computer science, and neural computing will find the book a useful and authoritative resource for the subject."--Jacket.
The first edition of this book was the first comprehensive text written solely on principal component analysis. The second edition updates and substantially expands the original version, and is once again the definitive text on the subject. It includes core material, current research and a wide range of applications. Its length is nearly double that of the first edition.