Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change

Anticipating Surprises

Author: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Understanding and Monitoring Abrupt Climate Change and Its Impacts

Publisher: National Academies Press

ISBN: 0309287766

Category: Science

Page: 222

View: 3883

Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain -- there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.

Abrupt Climate Change

Inevitable Surprises

Author: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Polar Research Board,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on Abrupt Climate Change

Publisher: National Academies Press

ISBN: 9780309133043

Category: Science

Page: 252

View: 9575

The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic--and often extreme--shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.

Abrupt Climate Change

Mechanisms, Patterns, and Impacts

Author: Harunur Rashid,Leonid Polyak,Ellen Mosley-Thompson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 111867152X

Category: Science

Page: 242

View: 2496

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 193. Abrupt Climate Change: Mechanisms, Patterns, and Impacts brings together a diverse group of paleoproxy records such as ice cores, marine sediments, terrestrial (lakes and speleothems) archives, and coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models to document recent advances in understanding the mechanisms of abrupt climate changes. Since the discovery of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events in Greenland ice cores and the subsequent discovery of their contemporary events in the marine sediments of the North Atlantic, the search for these abrupt, millennial-scale events across the globe has intensified, and as a result, the number of paleoclimatic records chronicling such events has increased. The volume highlights include discussions of records of past climate variability, meridional overturning circulation, land-ocean-atmosphere interactions, feedbacks in the climate system, and global temperature anomalies. Abrupt Climate Change will be of interest to students, researchers, academics, and policy makers who are concerned about abrupt climate change and its potential impact on society.

Die Machiavellis der Wissenschaft : das Netzwerk des Leugnens

Author: Erik M. Conway,Naomi Oreskes

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 3527412115

Category: Democracy and science

Page: 389

View: 1788

Ein ganz realer Thriller: Wie skrupellose Lobbyisten seriöse Forscher diffamierten und gezielt Falschinformationen in lancierten Medienkampagnen global verbreiteten. Der Plot ist hollywoodreif, die Geschichte so skandalträchtig wie bestürzend Eine Handvoll Forscher leugnet, manipuliert und diskreditiert anerkannte wissenschaftliche Tatsachen wie den Klimawandel oder den Zusammenhang zwischen dem Rauchen und gesundheitlichen Risiken. Doch Die Machiavellis der Wissenschaft (im Original Merchants of Doubt) ist kein fiktiver Roman, sondern berichtet von der Realität. In den USA sorgte das Buch von Naomi Oreskes und Erik M. Conway für Furore und wurde zum Bestseller. Kein Wunder, die Geschichte, die sie erzählen, ist schließlich unglaublich – es ist die Geschichte über den Kampf gegen Fakten und über den Handel mit dem Zweifel, über die Manipulation der Medien und die Diffamierung Einzelner. Und sie geht uns alle an. Schließlich lehnten die USA als einzige Industrienation die Ratifizierung des Kyoto–Protokolls ab und verhinderten so wichtige Schritte des Klimaschutzes. Ein Lehrstück über die Macht der Industrielobby und ihre Handlanger aus Politik und Wissenschaft und ein Lehrstück darüber, wie erschreckend einfach es möglich ist, mit unlauteren Absichten selbst seriöse Medien zu beeinflussen und mit nachweislich falschen Informationen zu »füttern«.

Das Kyoto-Protokoll

Internationale Klimapolitik für das 21. Jahrhundert

Author: Sebastian Oberthür,Hermann E. Ott

Publisher: Springer-Verlag

ISBN: 3663014347

Category: Social Science

Page: 443

View: 1485

Die internationale Klimapolitik ist an einem Wendepunkt angekommen. Die Annahme des Kyoto-Protokolls ist ein großer Schritt in dem Versuch der Menschheit, die schädlichen Folgen des Klimawandels zu begrenzen. Dieses Buch, geschrieben von zwei deutschen Experten, erklärt die naturwissenschaftlichen, ökonomischen sowie politischen Bedingungen desTreibhauseffekts und erläutert die Hintergründe der Annahme des Kyoto-Protokolls. Das Buch analysiert in seinem Mittelteil den Vertragstext im Stile eines Gesetzeskommentars, nennt die offenen Fragen und gibt mögliche Antworten für die Weiterentwicklung der Normen. In einem dritten Teil werden Schlussfolgerungen gezogen, die politische Landschaft nach Kyoto beleuchtet und eine Leadership-Initiative für die Europäische Union vorgestellt, um die Handlungsmacht gegenüber den USA wieder zu erlangen.

Applied Studies in Climate Adaptation

Author: Jean P. Palutikof,Sarah L. Boulter,Jon Barnett,David Rissik

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 111884503X

Category: Science

Page: 496

View: 2909

The book advances knowledge about climate change adaptationpractices through a series of case studies. It presents importantevidence about adaptation practices in agriculture, businesses, thecoastal zone, community services, disaster management, ecosystems,indigneous populations, and settlements and infrastructure. Inaddition to 38 case studies across these sectors, the book containshorizon-scoping essays from international experts in adaptationresearch, including Hallie Eakin, Susanne Moser, Jonathon Overpeck,Bill Solecki, and Gary Yohe. Australia’s social-ecological systems have a long historyof adapting to climate variability and change, and in recentdecades has been a world-leader in implementing and researchingadaptation, making this book of universal relevance to all thoseworking to adapt our environment and societies to climatechange.

Climate Change Impacts on Ocean and Coastal Law

U.S. and International Perspectives

Author: Randall S. Abate

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

ISBN: 0199368740

Category: Law

Page: 699

View: 1079

Ocean and coastal law has grown rapidly in the past three decades as a specialty area within natural resources law and environmental law. This book unites the two worlds of climate change regulation and ocean and coastal management. It raises important questions about whether and how ocean and coastal law will respond to the regulatory challenges that climate change presents to resources in the oceans and coasts of the United States and the world.

Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change

Exploring the Real Risks and How We Can Avoid Them

Author: Michael MacCracken

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136556362

Category: Political Science

Page: 320

View: 8387

'An impressive accomplishment. Al Gore, Former Vice President of the US, co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, and author of An Inconvenient Truth Offers positive solutions that no rational person, organization or government can ignore - except at their peril. Stephen H. Schneider, Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Stanford University, and author of The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival The science is clear and the message of this book is that there is no more time for delay. Rosina M. Bierbaum, Dean, University of Michigan While changes in emissions and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are projected to be slow and smooth, the intensity and impacts of climate change on the environment and society could be abrupt and erratic. Surprising and nonlinear responses are likely to occur as warming exceeds certain thresholds, inducing relatively rapid and disruptive changes in the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, precipitation intensity and patterns, coastal inundation, the occurrence of wildfire, the ranges of plant and animal species and more. Written by a transdisciplinary group of internationally respected researchers, this book explores the possibilities of such changes, their significance for society and efforts to move more rapidly to limit climate change than current government measures.

Freakonomics

überraschende Antworten auf alltägliche Lebensfragen ; [warum wohnen Drogenhändler bei ihren Müttern? Führt mehr Polizei zu weniger Kriminalität? Sind Swimmingpools gefährlicher als Revolver? Macht gute Erziehung glücklich?]

Author: Steven D. Levitt,Stephen J. Dubner

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9783442154517

Category:

Page: 411

View: 6151

Sind Swimmingpools gefährlicher als Revolver? Warum betrügen Lehrer? Der preisgekrönte Wirtschaftswissenschaftler Steven D. Levitt kombiniert Statistiken, deren Zusammenführung und Gegenüberstellung auf den ersten Blick absurd erscheint, durch seine Analysetechnik aber zu zahlreichen Aha-Effekten führt. Ein äußerst unterhaltsamer Streifzug durch die Mysterien des Alltags, der uns schmunzeln lässt und stets über eindimensionales Denken hinausführt.

Der Mensch und das Meer

Warum der größte Lebensraum der Erde in Gefahr ist

Author: Callum Roberts

Publisher: DVA

ISBN: 3641100062

Category: Social Science

Page: 592

View: 7541

Der Wandel eines faszinierenden, bedrohten Lebensraums Die Ozeane sind nicht nur der größte Lebensraum der Erde, sondern auch der am wenigsten erforschte. Die unermessliche Vielfalt dieses Ökosystems beginnen wir erst jetzt bis in die letzten Winkel zu begreifen – auch wie wichtig das Meer für unser Leben ist. Im letzten Jahrhundert hat jedoch die Herrschaft des Menschen über die Natur auch die Ozeane erreicht: Wir fischen die Meere leer und füllen sie stattdessen mit Umweltgiften. Tiefseebergbau droht den Lebensraum unzähliger Pflanzen und Tiere bis zur Unkenntlichkeit zu verändern. Die Klimaerwärmung ließ bereits ein Viertel aller Korallen zugrunde gehen. In seinem aufrüttelnden Buch beschreibt der Meeresbiologe und –schützer Callum Roberts den großen Reichtum der Ozeane und ihren Wandel, und er ruft dazu auf, der Zerstörung der Meere endlich Einhalt zu gebieten, denn noch ist es nicht zu spät.

Erde im Aufruhr

Author: Immanuel Velikovsky

Publisher: Julia White Publishing

ISBN: 3934402801

Category:

Page: 314

View: 8189

Kulturgeschichte des Klimas

Von der Eiszeit bis zur globalen Erwärmung

Author: Wolfgang Behringer

Publisher: C.H.Beck

ISBN: 3406625053

Category: History

Page: 352

View: 8929

Zum Buch Alle sprechen vom Wetter. Darüber, wie es werden wird, gibt es derzeit mehr Voraussagen als je zuvor. Aber was wissen wir über Klimaschwankungen vor 500 oder vor 5000 Jahren? Wie können wir überhaupt etwas über die Geschichte des Wetters herausfinden? Schließlich: Wie haben sich die Klimaschwankungen der Vergangenheit auf den Menschen, seine Lebensweise und seine Kultur ausgewirkt? Der Historiker Wolfgang Behringer erschließt uns in einem faszinierenden Streifzug, was wir über Klimaänderungen und ihre kulturellen Konsequenzen vom Holozän bis ins 21. Jahrhundert wissen. Er führt uns ein in die historische Forschung zur Klimaentwicklung und zeigt uns, welche Schwankungen es gab und wie sie das Fortkommen des Homo sapiens behinderten oder beförderten. Sein spannendes Buch führt uns plastisch vor Augen, mit welchen Schwierigkeiten, manchmal aber auch mit welch angenehmen Wetterepochen unsere Vorfahren konfrontiert waren und wie sie damit umgingen. Das lehrt uns nicht zuletzt Mut zu fassen, den Klimawandel als die Herausforderung unserer Gegenwart zu begreifen und in einem besseren Sinne als bisher zu beeinflussen.

The Economics of Climate Change

The Stern Review

Author: Nicholas Stern

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1139936425

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 1853

There is now clear scientific evidence that emissions from economic activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels for energy, are causing changes to the Earth ́s climate. A sound understanding of the economics of climate change is needed in order to underpin an effective global response to this challenge. The Stern Review is an independent, rigourous and comprehensive analysis of the economic aspects of this crucial issue. It has been conducted by Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the UK Government Economic Service, and a former Chief Economist of the World Bank. The Economics of Climate Change will be invaluable for all students of the economics and policy implications of climate change, and economists, scientists and policy makers involved in all aspects of climate change.

Die Stratosphäre

Phänomene, Geschichte, Relevanz

Author: Karin Labitzke

Publisher: Springer-Verlag

ISBN: 3642599893

Category: Science

Page: 178

View: 6659

In diesem Buch wird einerseits die spannende Entdeckung der Stratosphäre selbst und verschiedener unerwarteter Phänomene in der Stratosphäre beschrieben: ein bemannter Ballonflug im Jahr 1901 bis in 11 km Höhe; eine Expedition zum Victoriasee im Jahr 1908; die Entdeckung der Ozonschicht um 1930, des "Berliner Phänomens" im Jahr 1952, des Einflusses von Vulkaneruptionen im Jahr 1982, des Ozonlochs im Jahr 1985 und des Einflusses der Sonnenaktivität im Jahr 1987. Andererseits wird gezeigt, wie diese Erscheinungen miteinander verknüpft sind und wie sie anthropogene und natürliche Schwankungen in unserem Klimasystem verursachen. Am Beispiel der Stratosphäre soll das Buch zum Verständnis der Erforschung komplizierter Zusammenhänge in der Natur beitragen.

A Perfect Moral Storm

The Ethical Tragedy of Climate Change

Author: Stephen M. Gardiner

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199910456

Category: Philosophy

Page: 512

View: 3744

Climate change is arguably the great problem confronting humanity, but we have done little to head off this looming catastrophe. In The Perfect Moral Storm, philosopher Stephen Gardiner illuminates our dangerous inaction by placing the environmental crisis in an entirely new light, considering it as an ethical failure. Gardiner clarifies the moral situation, identifying the temptations (or "storms") that make us vulnerable to a certain kind of corruption. First, the world's most affluent nations are tempted to pass on the cost of climate change to the poorer and weaker citizens of the world. Second, the present generation is tempted to pass the problem on to future generations. Third, our poor grasp of science, international justice, and the human relationship to nature helps to facilitate inaction. As a result, we are engaging in willful self-deception when the lives of future generations, the world's poor, and even the basic fabric of life on the planet is at stake. We should wake up to this profound ethical failure, Gardiner concludes, and demand more of our institutions, our leaders and ourselves. "This is a radical book, both in the sense that it faces extremes and in the sense that it goes to the roots." --Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews "The book's strength lies in Gardiner's success at understanding and clarifying the types of moral issues that climate change raises, which is an important first step toward solutions." --Science Magazine "Gardiner has expertly explored some very instinctual and vitally important considerations which cannot realistically be ignored. --Required reading." --Green Prophet "Gardiner makes a strong case for highlighting and insisting on the ethical dimensions of the climate problem, and his warnings about buck-passing and the dangerous appeal of moral corruptions hit home." --Times Higher Education "Stephen Gardiner takes to a new level our understanding of the moral dimensions of climate change. A Perfect Moral Storm argues convincingly that climate change is the greatest moral challenge our species has ever faced - and that the problem goes even deeper than we think." --Peter Singer, Princeton University

Hot House

Global Climate Change and the Human Condition

Author: Robert G. Strom

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 0387686118

Category: Nature

Page: 302

View: 3166

Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including the politics and reasons why this is such a politically charged issue.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the United States

Author: Robert Shackleton

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

ISBN: 143792249X

Category:

Page: 25

View: 5679

Human activities are yielding rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other gases and particulates and are also greatly altering the Earth¿s land cover. These activities, if allowed to continue unabated, will have extensive, highly uncertain, but potentially serious and costly impacts on regional climates and ocean conditions throughout the world. Here is an overview of the current understanding of the impacts of climate change in the U.S., emphasizing the wide range of uncertainty about the magnitude and timing of those impacts and the implications of that uncertainty for the formulation of effective policy responses. Provides a conceptual framework for addressing climate change as an economic concern. Illustrations.

Grundzüge einer Systemtheorie

Principles of Systems

Author: Jay Wright Forrester

Publisher: Springer-Verlag

ISBN: 3663020940

Category: Science

Page: 213

View: 3604